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This strategy has historically surpassed 90% of professional investors
To get an ‘A’ as a guitar player, a plumber, or a doctor requires years of study, hours of practice, and constant refinement. Serious dedication.
But with investing, the inverse is generally true.
Let me explain.
Most of us have had enough life experience to know that it’s nearly impossible to predict the future of the stock or real estate market. Even Nobel Prize winning economists agree: the best answer to 'What will happen in the future?' is: 'Nobody knows.' To use a weather analogy, in the Canadian Rockies the weather is constantly changing. When I went there for vacation, I took shorts, a winter jacket, and everything in between. We had one day when it was warm and sunny in the morning, and cold with hail by afternoon.
A broad index mutual fund is the equivalent of taking a range of clothes to help protect you in variable weather. This kind of mutual fund offers hundreds or even thousands of companies in one fund (the fancy word is diversification). Instead of predicting which companies will do best, the index fund assumes nobody really knows so it diversifies your money across every company within a broad category.
An example of an index fund is one that tracks the S&P 500 Index. There’s transparency with an index fund: when the market increases, your money increases, and vice versa. In contrast, a non-index or active fund tries to predict when the market will rise or fall (to signal that they can protect you from downturns). That’s an admirable goal, but as historical evidence shows, very few are able to predict the future, and almost no one can do it consistently. In fact, staying the course and not trying to predict the future has historically provided investment returns in the top 10% of professional investors. A beginner can reach the top 10%–the equivalent of an “A”–without spending any time.
Staying invested pays off. (The market recovered from the 2008 crash in six years, and from the COVID-19 crash in just eight months.)
Granted, passive investing can feel dull. Someone who picks “hot stocks” can boast about their latest acquisition at dinner parties: "Wow, did you hear about this new AI company? I just put money in!" A passive investor isn’t going to wow anyone by saying: "I invest in everything."
While it might seem glamorous or exciting to engage in stock picking, it’s not uncommon for active investors to put 10+ hours a week into researching companies. And despite all this work, only about ten percent of professional money managers beat the S&P 500 index over the long term. In fact, according to S&P Global, only 36% of actively managed funds matched or beat the S&P 500 in 2024 alone. Those pros in the top 10% get an A+ for sure. But if you buy index funds and leave them alone, you're getting that A. That’s a fantastic grade for doing almost no work and not having to worry.
What if you decide to make investing the calm part of your life
and make the rest of your life more exciting?
The Cost of Playing It Too Safe
Now, some people avoid both active investing AND index funds. They think the safest move is keeping money in CDs or savings accounts—something that feels secure and predictable. While there are good reasons for keeping some of our money in CDs or savings accounts for shorter term goals, let’s look at what that really costs you for your retirement.
Say you have $100,000 and you put it in CDs at 3% a year. Thirty years later, you've got about $240,000.
The S&P 500 has averaged around 10% over the same 30-year time period. At that rate, your $100,000 becomes $1,740,000. That's about
seven times as much money. Just because you followed the evidence instead of your emotions.
Two people might make the same salary and have the same net worth at age 35, but one of them has enough money at age 65 to travel, work because they want to, maybe own a second home. The other is stressed about money and has limited options. One simple investment strategy can make the difference.
What Keeps Us From the Simple Path
I think it comes down to control. We want to be in control of our money. We want to make the decisions, pull the levers. But you have to let go of the idea that you're smarter than everyone else or that you have a better crystal ball.
Look at it this way: if someone offered you a job that was less stressful and paid you more money, you'd take it in a moment, right? That's what you're doing here. You're taking the job of being a boring investor, and in return, you're getting less stress, with the potential to make more money over time.
Building Your Resilience Muscle
First, recognize that markets go up and down like the weather. It's normal. Journalists have to report on market volatility in a sensational way otherwise people won’t read the article. They're playing on our fear that we're either going to lose a lot of money, or miss out on making a lot of money.
But between stimulus and response, there is a space. And in that space, you have the freedom to
respond instead of react.
When the markets fall, I take a money breath to help calm my reactivity and take wise action. With an index fund, that wise action is staying the course and not reacting to your fear by selling during a downturn.
Try the Money Breath meditation anytime you feel reactive about money.
Embracing 'Good Enough'
Being in the top 10% is good enough for me. If someone told me there was an easy way to get an A in guitar playing, I'd sign up in a second. But there's no easy path with guitar. Or surgery. Or plumbing. It takes years of work.
With investing, there's an easy path to excellent results. The hard part isn't the strategy—it's letting go of the need to be extraordinary.
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